Raise or Fold:  A Year of Risky Business

Writing and playing poker as if they were activities worth doing well.

Sunday, February 8, 2009

The Usual Suspects

You play with the same people long enough, you pay attention, you adjust and they don't, and you ought to be able to beat them.

I think this is where I am with the Crime Scene Game. I know the regulars. I know how they play. I am rarely surprised, these days, when a hand goes to showdown: I know what I'm likely to see.

Whereas, I know that I am capable of surprising them.

I was under the gun (first to act after the big blind). I made a minimum raise. It folded around to the big blind, who tripled my bet. I smooth-called.

The flop came: Js 10c 8s.

The other player checked. I bet two thirds of the pot.
He called.

The turn was: 3c

My opponent checked. I made a half-pot bet.
He called.

The river was: 9h
My opponent led out for about a quarter of the pot.

The range I put him on, given the action and what I know of his style: a mid pocket pair (66, 77, 88, 99), AK, A10 or possibly AJ.

I raised all-in. I had my opponent well-covered, but it was effectively another pot-sized bet for all his chips.

He rolled his eyes, heaved a great sigh of frustration, and folded.

For which I was very grateful: as I dragged the rather substantial pot, I flipped over my pocket deuces.

I rarely show. I think I pissed off my opponent pretty severely by showing this particular bluff, but since I play at this venue often, I need to sow the seeds of doubt periodically. Ninety-five percent of the time when I show down, I have a great hand. When I win without showdown, I muck. Consequently, I have an extremely solid image. But they all need to know I am capable of the all-in bluff.

So that they'll pay me off BOTH when I have the nuts AND when I shove with air.

...Why yes, thank you, I do believe I'll have my cake and eat it too.

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Blogger joxum (Denmark) said...

[insert two thumbs up icon here]

You're back at your A-game again, nice hand!


2/9/09 10:41 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

nh, but how can you put him on AT, AJ, or AK and not AQ? Was it the 1/4 pot river bet? What would he have done if he had a Q?

Guy is a major donkey if he'll check-call two streets with whiffed over cards or a set of eights.

2/11/09 9:02 AM  
Blogger Cardgrrl said...


...not on AQ?

Because I know this guy, and he's not chasing down a gutshot straight draw. He will call with a pair or an open-ended straight draw.

He might well check-call two streets with a set of eights because he lives to trap me. I thought 99 was the most likely hand though, because he raises bigger with weaker made hands.

This entire hand was situational. I was just confident that I could move him off his hand if a scare card came (either the flush or straight).

2/11/09 4:33 PM  

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