Raise or Fold:  A Year of Risky Business

Writing and playing poker as if they were activities worth doing well.

Saturday, February 21, 2009

Some Solace

I managed to cash in an online Razz tournament this evening. (Thank god for Razz.) And I won a satellite seat which I promptly traded in for the tournament dollars. And then I won a single table sit'n'go, largely because (mirabile dictu) my Aces didn't get cracked.

Other than that, the astounding suckoutage continues in both cash and tournaments. My favorite being my bustout from the 100K earlier tonight when my AK went down in flames to A2, as my opponent flopped the wheel. Spectacular!

Just when you think you've seen every possible way to lose when massively ahead, the poker gods come up with new and creative ways to mess with your mind.

I think I'm going to revert to playing nothing online but sit'n'gos and Razz tournaments for a good long while now. I'm feeling pretty punchy from my recent results in cash games and hold'em MTTs, and I might as well concentrate on my roots until my confidence returns.

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Blogger Crash said...

I used Poker Academy's Showdown Calculator on your AK versus the A2. AK only wins 71% of the time. Else A2 wins or ties. So, if you go all in on something like that several times in a night, you are likely to bust out.
Using the Poker Academy Hand Evaluator, AK will only win 64% of the time against one random opponent and only 13% of the time against 9 opponents.
CHEER UP!! You play well and you write well.

Crash, from PAO

2/22/09 12:08 PM  
Blogger Cardgrrl said...

Thanks for the encouragement, Crash.

But if I'm not willing to get my money in the middle, shorter-stacked and latish in a tournament against one opponent, when I'm 3:1 to win or tie -- well, then I need to find a new hobby.

I would make that same choice again every time.

2/22/09 3:07 PM  
Blogger Crash said...

I certainly agree with your choice of action under those conditions. But it doesn't seem to fit the category of spectacular, astounding suckoutage. :)

1. A donk like me easily accepts suckoutage. I lose far more due to my own mistakes.
2. Big pros usually take hands like that in stride. (Yes there are notable exceptions.) They say luck ceases to be a factor in the long long term.
3. Accomplished players in the upper middle, like you, seem to have the most trouble dealing with it.

I read somewhere that even the best tourney players only win or money (can't remember which) about 15%-25% of the tournies they enter

Would it help if I told you that you and bastin are the only blogs where I read every post?


2/22/09 4:30 PM  
Blogger Cardgrrl said...

You're right, of course that losing when a 75%er to win or tie is not a major suckout. Flopping the wheel, though, IS pretty spectacular.

What you're hearing from me is mostly the cumulative effect of running really bad for a really long time. For a large amount of money.

As for luck ceasing to be a factor in the long run... true, but the long run can be really, really long. See Mike Carol's article here.

2/22/09 4:39 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Notoriety of this blog has certainly spread from coast-to-coast and beyond.

It seems that the meteoric success of your writings and the huge following you entertain has led you down the path of other noted authors.

The amazing Edgar Allen Poe was led by his writings to emotional distress while Mr. Theodore Kaczynski's schizophrenia morphed into a delusion and anger.

Have you "really" had 3 flat tires? Is someone out to sabotage your poker evenings out? You must be quite the ringer for that much respect! (or maybe a slow leak). Your AK getting beat by A2?!? It must be the site you were on ~ you know ~ they're all rigged - but if it was live, maybe the dealer had it in for you... And your aces getting cracked early and often ~ that never seems to happen to me ~ when I'm ahead - I ALWAYS WIN! (just lucky like that I guess)

Wishing you much success in the coming blogs and on the felt!
May your monster hands hold up....
and if they don't - say what my friend utter when certainty turns to shit....
"It is what it is" and buy in for another tourney.

Happy blogging

2/22/09 11:25 PM  

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